The B.C. Real Estate Association expects home sales in the province to decline 4.5 per cent this year and price growth to resume in 2027.
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The B.C. Real Estate Association says home sales in the province are expected to fall 4.5 per cent in 2026 from 2025 levels to just over 67,000 units sold.
In its fourth-quarter forecast, the association warned that the market is facing “mounting headwinds,” and said prospective buyers have had several reasons to hesitate, including an oil-price shock, trade tensions with the United States, slower immigration and rising interest rates.
The forecast says active listings in B.C. are at their highest level since 2015, while new-home inventory is also elevated, adding pressure to prices.
It projects the average home price will decline 1.2 per cent this year to just over $941,000.
The association anticipates a “modest recovery” in 2027, projecting sales to increase 7.2 per cent, tied to expectations of reduced impacts from new U.S. tariffs and lower fixed mortgage rates.
It also expects price growth to return as supply pressures ease, forecasting a 2.4 per cent increase in 2027 to an average provincial price of $964,200.
Regionally, the forecast estimates Greater Vancouver home sales will reach 23,000 units this year, down 3 per cent from the year before, while the Fraser Valley is projected to see a 4.4 per cent decrease to 11,000 units.
The association said the largest decline is expected in the Chilliwack area of the Lower Mainland, where unit sales are forecast to drop from 2,300 in 2025 to 1,900 in 2026, an 18-per-cent decrease.
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