Natural Resources Canada estimates there is a one-in-five chance of a very strong earthquake affecting the Vancouver region within the next 50 years.
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Vancouver cannot predict the exact timing or magnitude of a future earthquake, but Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) estimates there is a one-in-five chance of a very strong earthquake in the next 50 years.
In recent years, the region has felt multiple earthquakes, including a 4.7-magnitude quake north of Sechelt, B.C., on February 21, 2025, and a 4.1-magnitude earthquake east of Sidney, B.C., on March 3, 2025.
On November 10, 2026, a 4.7-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Vancouver Island, with no reports of damage mentioned in the source.
The source says seismologists warn a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake is possible and would likely originate from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a fault line running from Vancouver Island down to California.
A report published in November 2024 by the City of Vancouver and NRCan is cited as outlining potential impacts, including thousands of buildings damaged or destroyed.
The source also cites a city estimate that more than 6,100 buildings could face severe damage, particularly in older neighbourhoods including Kitsilano, Mount Pleasant and the Downtown Eastside.
Among the projected impacts, the source says widespread power outages could occur, with collapsed power lines and ruptured gas mains leading to a citywide blackout.
It also notes that bridges and roads could be heavily affected, naming the Cambie, Granville and Burrard bridges.
The report estimate cited in the source places economic losses at up to $17 billion, with years of recovery ahead.
The source further says that if an underwater landslide were triggered, a UBC report estimates a tsunami could add destruction risk for low-lying areas such as Richmond and Delta.
The source lists neighbourhoods described as having the highest concentration of risk, including the West End, the Downtown Eastside (including Chinatown and Strathcona), Downtown, Kitsilano, Fairview and Mount Pleasant.
It says those six highest-risk neighbourhoods collectively contribute 65% of citywide seismic risk and contain the region’s two largest employment districts, along with more than two-thirds of the city’s purpose-built market rental units in the densest residential neighbourhoods.
For preparation, the source says Vancouver is not fully ready, noting many older structures remain vulnerable and that retrofitting costs are high.
On federal measures, the source says Budget 2026 outlines a strengthened response to disasters with a particular focus on southwestern B.C. and the region between Ottawa and Québec City.
It also says the Canadian government intends to introduce the Canadian Earthquake Insurance Facility, financed through nominal levies on insurers and designed to provide up to $50 billion to the property and casualty insurance sector after an extreme earthquake.
Budget 2026 text is quoted in the source: “While Canada’s property and casualty insurance sector is among the best prepared in the world for earthquake losses, the most extreme earthquakes can place extraordinary pressure on the insurance system, affecting its ability to respond and continue providing essential insurance services to Canadians.”
The source also cites a B.C. Government report updated in March 2025 with preparedness tips, including building an emergency kit, securing heavy furniture, knowing exit routes and signing up for alerts, with an instruction to watch for real-time updates from Earthquakes Canada.
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