Trump says U.S. working on Belarus potash deal to reduce dependence on Canadian fertilizer supplies

The Story

U.S. President Donald Trump says the United States is working on a potash deal with Belarus as a way to reduce American dependence on Canadian fertilizer exports, arguing it would translate into lower prices for U.S. farmers.

In a social media post released Monday morning, Trump said the planned arrangement would produce prices that are “substantially less” than what American buyers pay to Canadian exporters.

Trump characterized the prospective agreement as “very good news” for American farmers and ranchers and described Belarus as an authoritarian state and a close ally of Russia.

The announcement comes in the context of major shifts in potash markets over the past several years. Potash prices rose sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, though they have since come down.

Despite the post-2022 easing, prices remain above prewar levels, leaving buyers in the United States with an ongoing incentive to pursue supply options outside Canadian exporters.

Canada remains deeply embedded in the U.S. potash market, according to information cited in the report. Nutrien Ltd., a Saskatchewan-based producer, says Canada supplies more than 80 per cent of the potash used on U.S. farms.

Federal statistics cited in the same account show that the United States imported $4.2 billion worth of potash in 2025, representing nearly half of Canada’s potash exports.

The U.S. has also continued to exempt potash from its tariff regime, and potash is presented as a key input in fertilizers that are used broadly across agricultural production.

Global supply conditions also help explain why Canada and other major producers matter for U.S. buyers. The report states Canada produced about a third of the world’s potash supply in 2023, followed by Russia and Belarus.

By targeting Belarus in the proposed purchase arrangement, Trump’s comments signal a potential attempt to widen sourcing and reduce exposure to price movements tied to Canadian supply and to geopolitical disruptions that have already affected the broader potash market. For Canadian producers and exporters, the remarks point to renewed competition for market share in one of their most significant destinations—especially if a deal materializes and procurement patterns shift.