A Statistics Canada study says there is “no broad evidence” that AI has led to substantial decreases in hiring or increases in job separation rates in Canada since November 2022.
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A new study from Statistics Canada says it found “no broad evidence” that the rise of artificial intelligence has led to substantial decreases in hiring or increases in job separation rates in Canada since November 2022.
The study, published last week, assessed hiring and job separation rates over time and concluded that these measures were “generally within historical ranges or represented a continuation of pre-existing trends” from the six months before November 2022 to the six months ahead of August 2026.
The findings were similar for younger workers and for jobs Statistics Canada classified as potentially more susceptible to AI substitution, including data-entry clerks and computer coding-intensive occupations.
Tahsin Mehdi, a senior research economist at Statistics Canada and a co-author of the study, said AI is reshaping workflows and redefining jobs, but that it “may not be eliminating entire jobs right now.”
Statistics Canada said it examined labour force survey data for workers aged 15 to 64 between January 2006 and August 2026. Jobs were classified based on potential exposure to AI and whether AI was expected to complement workers’ tasks or substitute for them.
Mehdi said hiring and job separation rates provide “early signals of shifts in the labour market,” whether those shifts stem from trade dynamics, economic conditions, technology disruptions or AI.
The study found hiring declines for young workers across industries, including in job categories generally seen as less impacted by AI. Mehdi said it is difficult to distinguish whether the decline is specifically tied to AI when multiple economic factors are at play.
According to the study, in jobs with low exposure to AI, the hiring rate for employees aged 15 to 29 decreased from four per cent in the six months before November 2022 to 3.3 per cent in the six months before August 2026.
Over the same period, youth hiring rates in jobs more vulnerable to AI substitution edged down from 3.2 per cent to three per cent, the study said.
Mehdi said the broader context includes “trade dynamics,” U.S. tariffs and immigration shocks, along with rapid population growth, adding that these factors make it hard to isolate how AI fits in when many changes are occurring at once.
The study also reported that hiring rates in coding-intensive jobs decreased from 2.5 per cent to 1.9 per cent over the 2022-to-2026 period. Mehdi said hiring in that field had risen to above five per cent around 2020 and 2021, and suggested firms may have over-hired during the pandemic.
He also said employment growth for younger workers was relatively weak in the post-pandemic period regardless of potential exposure to AI, describing the labour market shift after the pandemic as something that could still be felt by young people.
Viet Vu, manager of economic research at The Dais at Toronto Metropolitan University, said he is not surprised by the findings and that there is a growing body of evidence suggesting it may be too early to detect AI’s impact on the Canadian labour market.
Vu argued that fear about AI can stem from its potential to affect every sector and from the pace of change, and said young people may be concerned that AI could alter the “fundamental social contract of work.” He described that contract as involving education, experience and the opportunity to land a first job that leads to future work.
Vu said studies such as Statistics Canada’s can help reduce “immediate fear and counter… fearmongering,” but may not address uncertainty about what could happen in the future.
The study’s authors noted their analysis represents early findings and said that as AI adoption accelerates, continued monitoring of labour market trends will be needed to understand how technological change is reshaping the economy and for whom.
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