Preliminary Statistics Canada data show Canadian return trips from the United States rose 3% in October, with some agencies citing a cautious pickup after the Nov. 3 midterm result.
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Preliminary figures from Statistics Canada show Canadian return trips from the United States rose 3% in October compared with the same period last year, marking a seventh straight month of growth even as overall volumes remain below 2024 levels.
Travel agency and industry figures presented alongside the data also point to a split between overall cross-border travel and particular leisure destinations: new bookings at Flight Centre Travel Group Canada fell 26% year-over-year in October, while Flight Centre described the leisure market as especially sensitive to tariff-related disruption.
Amra Durakovic, a spokesperson for Flight Centre, said the latest bookings drop reflected “the fragile” nature of cross-border travel, adding that the agency had seen new demand shift after the U.S. midterms on Nov. 3, which was widely viewed as a rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.
Durakovic said Flight Centre has heard “a degree of cautious optimism” from travellers who had been reluctant to return to the United States, including one customer who chose “a Mississippi River cruise” instead of another European trip after “Tuesday’s election” made them “a lot more comfortable travelling to the U.S. now.”
Other operators said the effect could be limited or too early to confirm, with Tripcentral.ca’s Richard Vanderlubbe saying, “We need at least a month,” and describing the change as not a sudden “sea change.” Vanderlubbe also said some agencies avoid promoting American packages because they “just don’t know which of our customers is going to be wildly offended by any kind of marketing in the United States,” calling it “like dynamite.”
A separate travel-related business executive, Marty Firestone of Travel Secure Inc., said he has seen an abrupt improvement in activity over the past week and described last year’s mood as: “I’m not going there. That man doesn’t want us. He calls us the 51st state.” Firestone linked the turnaround to relief he says Canadians are feeling after what he called the “Democratic blue tsunami.”
Aviation data cited in the report similarly suggest leisure demand is still down even if overall travel is holding up: Flight volumes from Canada to Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California are down 17% in total this quarter versus the final three months of 2024, while overall Canada–U.S. flight volumes decreased only 10%.
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