The Bank of Canada is scheduled to receive September inflation data and its own quarterly surveys on Monday as it heads toward a “live” policy decision on Oct. 28.
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The Bank of Canada is set to receive a series of fresh data points at the start of next week while preparing for an interest rate decision later this month.
Statistics Canada will release its September inflation data on Monday, providing the central bank a view of how energy price pressures are affecting other parts of the consumer basket.
RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said he expects annual inflation to have held steady around three per cent last month, largely due to persistently high gasoline prices.
Janzen said the Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision on Oct. 28 will be a “live” meeting, in which the door is open for the central bank to raise its policy rate, though a hike is not his base-case scenario.
He said that even if the September data show inflationary pressures spreading beyond gasoline, the Bank of Canada would still weigh that against signs of softness in the labour market and broader economic conditions.
The Bank of Canada will also release its own quarterly surveys of businesses and consumers on Monday, which Janzen said can help assess whether firms plan to pass rising costs on to consumers.
Janzen said higher energy prices would typically imply broader inflation pressures in the future, but that a weakening economy can create offsetting disinflationary forces.
He added that the result leaves the central bank “in a wait-and-see mode — very, very data dependent.”
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