Elliotte Friedman says the NHL’s first projection for the 2028-29 salary cap could reach as high as US$127.5 million, following earlier increases to US$104 million in 2026-27 and US$113.5 million in 2027-28.
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The NHL’s salary cap could enter a period of rapid expansion, with a preliminary forecast suggesting it may rise to as much as US$127.5 million for the 2028-29 season, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
Under the reported schedule, the cap is set at US$104 million for 2026-27 before increasing to US$113.5 million in 2027-28. If the later projection holds, teams would gain an additional US$14 million in spending room the next year.
The magnitude of the expected jump would be historic, with the projection described as the largest single-season increase in NHL salary cap history. That kind of ceiling growth can materially change how clubs structure contracts, particularly deals signed when the cap is lower relative to current or future player salaries.
A key driver cited for the projected increase is the league’s ongoing revenue growth. Commissioner Gary Bettman has projected the NHL will generate roughly US$8.1 billion in revenue during the upcoming season, which would position the league to support larger cap increases.
For players, a rapidly rising cap can translate into broader opportunities for higher compensation. The market has already shifted in recent months, with several of the league’s top stars signing contracts worth more than US$10 million annually, suggesting teams are willing to pay for core talent as payroll flexibility expands.
As the ceiling rises, those US$10-million-plus contracts may become less exceptional league-wide, changing the baseline expectations for star-level players and potentially influencing how quickly cap space is absorbed by new deals.
The projection also has implications for how teams evaluate long-term commitments already on the books. A contract that occupies a significant share of a team’s cap space today could represent a smaller portion of the ceiling in a few years, reducing the effective financial pressure of carrying that player under the cap system.
That dynamic can make some multi-year roster plans easier to manage as the league’s overall financial picture evolves, though the underlying forecast is not final. Friedman’s reported figure is characterized as a projection, meaning it could shift depending on the NHL’s revenue performance and other factors that affect the cap formula.
With multiple seasons between now and the projected 2028-29 ceiling, the NHL’s approach to managing player costs may increasingly be judged against a moving baseline. If revenue growth continues as projected, the salary landscape could look substantially different by the end of the decade, particularly in how teams price future extensions and free-agent targets.
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