Early indicators for China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival point to subdued spending by cautious consumers even as retailers promote deals.
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Singles’ Day, China’s biggest online shopping event focused on Nov. 11, is running ahead of the date but appears to be failing to pull worried shoppers into spending more, according to early retail data.
The festival is designed to act as a barometer for the broader economy and starts weeks before Wednesday’s Nov. 11 date. A retail data platform, Syntun, said that as of Oct. 31, cumulative Singles’ Day sales for this year were just over 1 trillion yuan (about $154 billion), broadly similar to last year’s figure for the same period.
Retailers have increased sales mainly by extending the length of the campaign. Total Singles’ Day sales in 2025 reached a record of almost 1.7 trillion yuan (about $254 billion).
Economists cited in the reporting said consumer demand has been suppressed by fading confidence tied in part to a prolonged property sector downturn. “Optimism over a recovery in domestic demand has faded,” said Max Zenglein, Asia Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board, adding that improvements in sentiment have proved short-lived.
E-commerce companies are leaning on technology to encourage more purchases. The reporting says Alibaba has integrated its Qwen AI into its Taobao and Tmall platforms for order help and product recommendations ahead of the campaign, and is promoting for the first time Singles’ Day AI token plans.
Despite these efforts, consumers described tighter spending. In Foshan, in China’s southern furniture manufacturing hub, Gabby Liang, 24, said she has been buying far less online, especially for non-essential items, and expects to purchase fewer items than last year during Singles’ Day. Other shoppers also said they are cutting back, including Kong Min, a Beijing resident, who said she is less interested in pursuing famous or high-end brands than before.
Some analysts also pointed to a growing “discount fatigue,” saying deals have become more frequent throughout the year. Yaling Jiang, founder of ApertureChina, said discounts are being offered year-round, shrinking the boost shoppers might have expected from Singles’ Day.
The broader economic picture includes relatively strong growth, but with uneven consumer spending. The reporting cited China’s economy expanding 4.6% year-over-year in January to September, while consumer goods retail sales rose just 1.1% over the same period.
It also highlighted the pressure facing households from the real estate slowdown. Home prices are down roughly 20% or more from the 2021 peak, and the reporting said stabilization in larger cities has not convinced many homeowners that prices will not fall further.
While consumer demand inside China is described as weak, the reporting said exports have surged. Exports rose 35% year-on-year in October, helped by high-tech items such as semiconductors and electric vehicles, and China is on track to surpass last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
Despite export gains, demand for big-ticket purchases at home has been hit. Passenger car sales inside China have fallen for most of this year, declining almost 25% in January to September, alongside dialed-back government subsidies. The reporting contrasted this with a 71% jump in exports of passenger cars during the same period, and said luxury purchases have also dipped, citing recent customer-demand comments from LVMH and Kering.
Even so, the reporting said not every retail category is struggling, with some status spending shifting toward health, lifestyle and experiences. Jacob Cooke, CEO of Beijing-based consultancy WPIC Marketing + Technologies, said sales of health-related items have been performing relatively well. The reporting cited WPIC data showing imported fish oil online sales up nearly 43% year-over-year over the 12 months ending in September, with supplements targeting sleep and joint or bone strength rising between 28% and 37%.
Cooke said he expects some growth in this year’s Singles’ Day sales. Another market researcher, ApertureChina’s Jiang, described the consumer trend as “just living life,” with shoppers focusing more on basic needs rather than grand gestures.
Still, even with subdued sentiment, the reporting said households retain spending capacity, with China’s large savings and population. Zenglein said China’s story is not one of outright weakness but of growing divergence, with pockets of stronger demand alongside overall subdued sentiment, while Liang said that overall there is “just not much extra to splurge.”
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