The B.C. Real Estate Association says B.C. home sales are expected to fall 4.5 per cent in 2026, with the provincial average price down 1.2 per cent.
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The B.C. Real Estate Association says home sales in the province are expected to decline further this year, warning of “mounting headwinds” for the market.
In its fourth-quarter forecast, the association projects sales will drop 4.5 per cent in 2026 compared with 2025, to just over 67,000 units sold.
The association said prospective buyers this year had several reasons to hesitate, including an oil-price shock, trade tensions with the United States, slower immigration and rising interest rates.
The forecast says active listings in B.C. are at their highest levels since 2015, and new-home inventory is also elevated.
With that supply pressure, the association predicts the average home price will fall 1.2 per cent to just over $941,000 in 2026.
It projects a “modest recovery” in 2027, with sales projected to increase 7.2 per cent, alongside an expectation that declines in the impacts of new U.S. tariffs and reductions in fixed mortgage rates will help support activity.
The forecast also anticipates a price increase of 2.4 per cent in 2027, bringing the provincial average price to $964,200.
Greater Vancouver home sales are projected to reach 23,000 units in 2026, down 3 per cent from the prior year, while the Fraser Valley is forecast to see a 4.4 per cent decrease to 11,000 units.
The largest decline is expected in the Chilliwack area of the Lower Mainland, with unit sales falling from 2,300 in 2025 to 1,900 in 2026, an 18-per-cent decrease.
The association said a 2025 marked the weakest year of sales in over a decade, and that any signs of a 2026 recovery were “thwarted” by a resurgent oil-price shock and further escalation in Canada’s trade war with the United States.
It also said population growth is expected to remain subdued through 2027, leaving “limited capacity” to grow at trend levels.
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