A UBC political scientist says B.C. residents voting in both a snap provincial election and a local election in October could leave less coverage for municipal challengers and favour incumbents.
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British Columbians are scheduled to vote twice in October, with a local election running alongside a snap provincial election called by Premier David Eby, a timing that a political scientist says could unintentionally benefit incumbent municipal politicians.
Stewart Prest, a UBC political science professor, said he was surprised the BC NDP went ahead with the provincial election, noting it “steps on the municipal election cycle.” Prest said this matters because the provincial and municipal governments often work closely together on major policy areas, including housing and city densification.
Prest’s assessment points to a potential “spillover” effect from the provincial campaign onto local races. Vancouver mayor Ken Sim, an incumbent, issued a press release after Eby called the election, arguing that B.C. has separate election cycles “for a reason” and that the principle “shouldn’t be set aside because the timing looks politically convenient.”
Prest said the overlap could change how much public attention and media focus municipal campaigns receive. With a limited number of reporters and news outlets available, he suggested there may be fewer opportunities for municipal stories and platforms to receive coverage, which could make it harder for challengers to “break through” even in contests where they might otherwise have gained momentum.
“Incumbents have a huge advantage… even at the best of times, in municipal governments,” Prest said, adding that the typical benefits of name recognition could become even more pronounced if voters feel they have less information about alternatives.
He said reduced coverage could also affect turnout. If voters “starve” for municipal government reporting, he argued they may be less likely to vote at all because they do not have the information needed to make choices, or they may “default” to the incumbents whose names they already recognize.
Prest said he has seen the same dynamic in his own conversations with media. Since the snap provincial election was called, the same contacts who previously asked him about municipal issues have instead shifted to provincial stories.
According to Prest, these election timing effects could influence how campaigns are framed as well as how voters encounter them. He said there is a “division” in municipal debates between voters emphasizing law and order and those focused on service changes, describing one group as concerned about “city’s stability” and another perceiving “declining services from government” at a time when they say more support is needed.
On housing specifically, Prest said municipal discussions are often organized around whether cities should pursue greater densification to lower costs versus whether the idea of meeting housing needs through densification may be misguided and contribute to higher prices, while potentially enabling poor residents to live in their communities.
For the provincial contest, Prest said the debate is currently more about framing than policy detail alone. He described the NDP’s approach as encouraging voters to focus on divisions within the Conservative Party of B.C., highlighting a contrast between more moderate Conservatives and a “more radical populist wing,” which he said Kerry-Lynne Findlay had been “tapping into.”
Prest also said the Conservative Party’s framing is focused on the NDP’s governance record, including unmet needs in health care and education, a multi-billion dollar deficit, and its handling of DRIPA, as he summarized the parties’ competing messages.
Ultimately, Prest said the question voters answer in their ballot box choices may depend on which framing dominates their understanding of the election—whether they view the issue as “conservative instability and radicalism” or as “NDP’s baggage from office.”
Prest cautioned that because the situation of provincial and municipal elections overlapping at the same time has occurred only once before, there is limited data on how the change will play out, but he said the diversion of attention from local coverage is a plausible mechanism affecting municipal results.
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