B.C. home sales forecast to drop 4.5% in 2026, with 2027 rebound expected

The Story

The B.C. Real Estate Association says home sales in the province are expected to continue sliding in 2026, with the fourth-quarter forecast predicting a 4.5% drop from 2025 levels to just over 67,000 units sold.

Association chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said prospective buyers had multiple reasons to hesitate this year, including an oil-price shock, trade tensions with the United States, slower immigration, and rising interest rates.

In the same forecast, active listings in B.C. are described as the highest since 2015, and new-home inventory is also elevated. The association expects those supply pressures to weigh on pricing, projecting the average home price will fall 1.2% to just over $941,000.

Looking ahead, the association anticipates a “modest recovery” in 2027, with sales projected to increase 7.2%. Ogmundson said that forecast is tied to an expectation of reduced impacts from new U.S. tariffs and lower fixed mortgage rates.

The forecast also expects price growth of 2.4% in 2027, lifting the provincial average price to $964,200, and describes this as a “long-awaited rebound” for the Lower Mainland market.

At the regional level, the association projects Greater Vancouver home sales will total 23,000 units in 2026, down 3% from the prior year, while the Fraser Valley is forecast to see a 4.4% decrease to 11,000 units. The largest decline is expected in the Chilliwack area of the Lower Mainland, with unit sales falling from 2,300 last year to 1,900 this year, an 18% drop.