Preliminary Statistics Canada figures show Canadian return trips from the U.S. rose 3% in October year over year, amid signs of cautious optimism from some travellers after the Nov. 3 midterm results.
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Canadian return trips from the United States rose 3% in October compared with the same period last year, marking the seventh straight month of growth, according to preliminary figures from Statistics Canada.
Flight Centre Travel Group Canada reported new leisure bookings fell 26% year over year last month, saying the drop followed a fresh round of tariffs and remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump in the weeks before.
Even so, Flight Centre said it has seen some movement since the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm election, which was viewed by some as a rebuke to White House policies. Amra Durakovic, a spokesperson for the travel agency, said some travellers who were hesitant about visiting the U.S. are now considering trips.
Durakovic said one customer booked a Mississippi River cruise instead of another European holiday, adding that Tuesday’s election influenced their decision and that they felt “a lot more comfortable travelling to the U.S. now.”
Durakovic also noted that business travel has continued with “virtually no drop” in Flight Centre bookings over the past couple of years, saying, “It’s still business as usual. You can’t exactly stop travelling to the U.S. because of politics.”
For now, the overall pace remains below earlier levels: Canadian visitor volumes from the U.S. were still 27% lower in October than in 2024 while the trade war continues to affect demand.
Some travel operators said it is too early to tell whether the midterms will drive a sustained shift. Richard Vanderlubbe, who heads Hamilton-based travel agency Tripcentral.ca, said, “We need at least a month,” and suggested any change may be limited as Trump is expected to remain in office for two more years.
Other agencies said they are cautious about marketing U.S. packages amid lingering sensitivities among Canadian travellers. Vanderlubbe said some customers may be “wildly offended” by U.S.-focused promotions, adding, “To market the U.S. is like dynamite.”
Aviation data firm Cirium reported that flights from Canada to Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California were down 17% in total this quarter compared with the final three months of 2024, while overall Canada-U.S. flight volumes decreased 10%. The difference points to a larger decline for certain leisure destinations.
Travel agents also said Canadians looking for winter breaks have expanded options farther afield amid factors affecting other destinations, including the shutdown of Cuban resorts amid a fuel shortage described as tied to an American oil blockade. Agents said Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica have seen increased popularity.
Some Canadians, including those with long-standing winter communities or property ties, said the U.S. remains an option. Stephen Fine, founder of Snowbird Advisor Insurance, said many snowbirds want to spend winters with friends and communities they have visited for years, and noted that some own properties and drive their vehicles to their destinations for the season.
The Trump-related effect on Canadian attitudes has also been reflected in business owners’ comments. Marty Firestone, head of Travel Secure Inc., said he saw an increase in business over the previous week, describing last year’s sentiment as, “I’m not going there. That man doesn’t want us. He calls us the 51st state,” and adding that the midterms left him with a sense Canadians felt more relieved about returning to the U.S.
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