Super El Niño could mean more typically southern animals in B.C., researchers say

The Story

A “super” El Niño forming over the Pacific could shift winter conditions in British Columbia and increase the odds of typically southern animals showing up farther north, with researchers noting that some unusual wildlife has already been spotted in the area.

Environment Canada research scientist Bill Merryfield said this year’s strongest El Niño in at least the past hundred years is linked to major Pacific hurricane activity and can influence Canada toward the end of the year, “perhaps around the holidays.” He said the main impact for B.C. is a milder-than-usual winter, with the department expecting a very high chance—particularly in Southern B.C.—that temperatures will be above the historical norm.

Merryfield said the summer weather across B.C. was milder and drier than normal, but that it was likely due to broader weather patterns rather than El Niño itself.

Among the first signs of change, a local whale-watching tour guide, Tobin Sparling, spotted a Cocos booby in Burrard Inlet in September. The Cocos booby is a tropical seabird named after the volcanic Cocos Island off Costa Rica’s Pacific coast, and as “shorebirds” it does not migrate like other birds, sometimes leaving nesting colonies after breeding season.

UBC marine ecologist and zoology professor Chris Harley said weather patterns like El Niño can affect what marine animals turn up locally, though he cautioned that individual sightings could be coincidences. He said, however, that the likelihood of seeing typically southern species during an El Niño year suggests they may track warm-water conditions that move up the coast.

Harley said the warm current movement increases the chance of other less-common marine life appearing in B.C. waters, including sunfish (mola mola), which he described as reaching “an awe-inspiring 14 feet vertically,” and sharks such as the great white. He also referenced a swordfish that washed ashore in Haida Gwaii a few weeks before the interview, describing it as “a really unusual thing to see this far north.”

He said El Niño years can also lead to noticeable changes on the bottom of the food web. Harley, who studies species that “live on the bottom,” described how California shore crabs can show up in El Niño years because their baby larvae drift north with warm currents and settle in places such as Bamfield, where “hundreds and hundreds of wee little baby California shore crabs” may appear the following spring.

Harley said the pattern can be temporary: once the El Niño fades, colder conditions can prevent the crabs from reproducing, and their numbers “just dwindle until you don’t see any more.”

Ecological impacts may also unfold later. Harley said the 1997–98 El Niño, which was also strong, changed offshore food-web conditions because there was less productivity in plankton, affecting seabirds the following year and contributing to a “year class of fish” being missing for a year. He said breeding failures in some areas and food shortages can also affect marine mammals such as sea lions and reduce kelp forest thickness, including kelp attached to rocks.

While some species may struggle in warmer water, Harley said others may benefit. He pointed to the Pacific oyster, which he described as a warm-water animal from Southern Japan, and said that after El Niño years it becomes warm enough for it to spawn, potentially leading to “another baby boom of oysters.”

He also connected warmer, drier Lower Mainland winters to less alpine snow and, in turn, saltier water in summer because there is less snowmelt. Harley said certain species such as the purple starfish thrive in saltier water, while also eating mussels, which he said can decline under the shifted conditions.

Harley said local implications from a super El Niño may not fully show up until months into 2027, as ocean and food-web changes can lag behind seasonal weather patterns.