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B.C. labour market softens in August as jobs slip and inflation shifts, Central 1 economist says

B.C. labour market softens in August as jobs slip and inflation shifts, Central 1 economist says

Employment fell for a third straight month in August, while B.C. inflation held at three per cent year over year in September, according to Statistics Canada data cited by Central 1.

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B.C.’s labour market weakened in August as employers shed positions for a third consecutive month, Statistics Canada data show.

Employment, measured by the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), fell by 6,336 positions, a decrease of 0.2 per cent that exceeded combined losses in the prior two months. Payroll employment rose 0.4 per cent year over year but retreated to its lowest level since March.

After excluding unclassified businesses, payrolls declined 0.2 per cent (down 4,976 positions), with month-over-month drops across both goods- and service-producing industries. Service-producing employment fell 0.2 per cent (3,537 positions), led by public administration, which dropped 1.6 per cent (2,814 positions) following a 0.4 per cent decline in July.

Other service categories that fell included accommodation and food services, down 0.5 per cent (1,230 positions), ending six consecutive monthly increases as slower tourism growth continued after the World Cup. Educational services declined 0.8 per cent (1,439 positions).

Health care and social assistance was the biggest offset, rising 0.6 per cent (2,282 positions). Over the past year, service employment grew 1.1 per cent (22,632 positions), with health care accounting for more than half of the gain as growth elsewhere faded.

In goods-producing industries, employment declined 0.4 per cent (1,439 positions), marking a third straight monthly decrease in construction, which was down 0.5 per cent (875 positions). Construction employment was also down 0.5 per cent year over year, consistent with subdued housing activity.

Manufacturing provided some support, rising 0.3 per cent month over month (440 positions) and 0.2 per cent year over year (237 positions). Overall, goods-producing employment declined 0.6 per cent year over year (2,416 positions), led by a 4.1 per cent annual loss in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction (1,165 positions).

Despite the payroll losses, average weekly earnings increased one per cent month over month to $1,369.91 and rose 5.2 per cent year over year. The job vacancy rate stood at 3.1 per cent, representing 78,400 vacant positions.

Earnings growth contrasted with modest wage expectations in Bank of Canada and small-business surveys, a pattern Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1, linked to shifts in employment composition.

The labour-market softening arrived alongside a mixed inflation picture in B.C. Inflation was unchanged at three per cent year over year in September, below the national rate of 3.1 per cent. While food inflation slowed to 2.3 per cent from 3.3 per cent in August, energy inflation rose to 17.5 per cent from 15.8 per cent, with gasoline up 23.1 per cent year over year and 2.7 per cent month over month.

Excluding energy, inflation edged down to 2.3 per cent from 2.4 per cent, while inflation excluding food and energy was 2.2 per cent and services inflation eased to 2.8 per cent from 2.9 per cent. Shelter inflation accelerated to 2.1 per cent from 1.5 per cent, driven by rent inflation rising to 5.3 per cent from 3.3 per cent, while owned accommodation inflation remained subdued at 0.3 per cent.

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