CIHI projects record $433B in 2026 health spending as experts question value for money

The Story

Canada’s health-care spending is projected to reach $433 billion in 2026, according to a new report from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), representing $10,398 per person and a 4.8 per cent increase over 2025.

CIHI projects that, for the first time since the pandemic, inflation-adjusted spending per person will surpass its previous peak reached in 2021.

The report also estimates Canada will spend more than $10,000 per person, while patients continue to report challenges including long wait times, overcrowded hospitals and difficulty finding family doctors.

Jason Sutherland, a University of British Columbia professor and director of the Centre for Health Services and Policy Research, said the spending increase may not translate into better care, arguing, “I believe that these records of spending are just buying us more of the same right now.”

Sutherland said meaningful improvements for patients would likely require changes to how health care is organized and delivered.

CIHI reported that in 2024-2025, one in 10 patients in emergency departments spent more than 14 hours there waiting for care, and Dr. Michael Herman, a spokesperson for the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians, said the findings were not a surprise.

The report estimates the $10,398 figure reflects the combined cost of publicly and privately funded health care—including hospitals, doctors, prescription drugs and services paid for through private insurance or directly by patients—and is not the amount each Canadian pays in taxes.

CIHI compares Canada’s spending with other countries, reporting that Canada devoted 11.5 per cent of gross domestic product to health care in 2024, compared with an OECD average of 9.3 per cent. The report places Canada alongside other high-spending countries including France at 11.3 per cent and Sweden at 11.2 per cent, while citing higher shares for Germany at 12.2 per cent and the United States at 17.2 per cent.

Sara Allin, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, agreed Canada’s spending is substantial but said comparisons should focus on what countries achieve with their investments, adding, “We have very persistently long wait times,” and “We have persistent challenges with care co-ordination.”

Allin described Canada’s health system as a “middle performer” among countries with similarly high expenditures, and she said differences in how care is financed can affect equity and efficiency.

The CIHI report identifies an expected change in how spending is growing: inflation-adjusted spending per person is projected to increase 2.3 per cent in 2026, compared with 0.4 per cent in 2025.

It also estimates public-sector spending will rise by more than $5 billion beyond what is needed to keep pace with inflation and demographic changes, and CIHI’s Adam Rondeau said the increase could indicate governments are investing in additional capacity, new technologies and innovations in health-care delivery.

However, Rondeau said it is difficult to determine exactly how much of the additional spending is linked to specific programs of work, and the report cannot establish whether the investment will lead to shorter wait times, more available services or better outcomes.

CIHI projects spending on physicians will grow 8.3 per cent this year, but it also says access to primary care remains a major challenge, including that 17 per cent of Canadian adults reported having no regular health-care provider in 2023.

Sutherland said the figures should reassure Canadians that substantial resources are devoted to health care while also prompting them to question whether the system is delivering strong value, adding, “I think they should be somewhat relieved that Canada is not underfunding this health-care system, but at the same time, they should be concerned that they're not getting great value for their money.”