Study estimates climate-driven wildfires could cost trillions for future generations by 2100

The Story

A study from Simon Fraser University researcher Sian Kou-Giesbrecht estimates climate-driven wildfires in Canada could lead to costs running into the trillions for future generations, as global temperatures continue to warm by roughly three to four degrees Celsius.

Kou-Giesbrecht said a motivation of the research was “to put it into economic terms that the general public could grasp a little bit better.” The study projects a worldwide wildfire price tag could reach more than $43 billion annually and $2.1 trillion cumulatively by the end of the century under those warming conditions.

While the study describes some costs as global rather than Canadian-specific, it also projects financial impacts for Canada. It estimates Canadian suppression costs, net timber yield loss and nature-based recreation loss would total $866 million annually and $46 billion cumulatively by the year 2,100.

Kou-Giesbrecht cautioned that the figure may be low, saying the work did not include health costs, which she said are “absolutely gigantic, especially over longer time scales.”

The modelling also did not account for singular extreme events, including Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. The study notes that year included evacuations involving more than 200 communities and exposed millions to hazardous pollutants.

The researcher said progress on green energy developments could help limit the most extreme warming scenarios, and called for stronger climate action, saying, “We just need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, hold global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius or ideally a lot lower and that’s really our only pathway.”