New analysis suggests the relief from declining rents in Vancouver may be temporary as tariff-related inflation works its way into high-rise building costs.
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Vancouver renters have seen steady declines in asking rents over the past few years, but new analysis warns that the downturn could be short-lived if the U.S.-Canada trade war leads to higher prices for construction inputs. Rentals.ca said the rental market is likely to feel the effects before those changes show up in monthly rent figures, because trade-war cost pressures first affect jobs and building costs.
The analysis points to a shift in the housing market that has previously been driving rent trends. After pandemic-era demand pushed rents sharply higher, the average asking rent in Vancouver peaked in September 2023 at $3,335, driven by renter demand outpacing supply amid Canada’s long-running shortage of purpose-built rental housing.
Rent relief has followed as federal policies and economic conditions changed. The federal government reversed direction on population growth by limiting it, and it also increased incentives intended to bring more purpose-built rentals to the market, easing demand pressure while boosting supply.
A tepid economy has also played a role, with younger Canadians reportedly delaying moves out on their own rather than forming independent households. That combination of softer demand and expanding rental-focused incentives has put downward pressure on rent levels in Vancouver.
Rentals.ca said the impact of tariffs is expected to be “outsized” in Vancouver and Toronto. The reasoning is linked to the type of buildings that dominate new development in those cities, particularly concrete high-rises that rely heavily on construction materials subject to tariff-driven price pressures.
The analysis described how tariff-related costs can filter into the supply of new housing even if they do not instantly appear in rent statistics. “Tariffs will shape the rental market before they show up in the rent numbers, as the trade war is only beginning to work its way through employment and construction costs,” said Shaun Hildebrand, president at Urbanation, in a release.
On the construction side, Rentals.ca cited Statistics Canada’s Building Construction Price Index to illustrate uneven movement in key materials. For the second quarter of 2026, metal fabrication rose 2.1 per cent quarter over quarter, and structural steel framing increased 1.8 per cent quarter over quarter and 7.2 per cent since the first quarter of 2025, while wood, plastics, and composites fell 0.3 per cent over the same quarter.
The company said tariffs could hit markets building more concrete and steel more severely than regions where low-rise, wood-framed construction is common. It said places such as Alberta and Quebec may feel less impact because the predominant building types rely less on the same steel-and-metal products targeted by tariff-related inflation, whereas Vancouver’s new builds are described as largely concrete high-rises.
Rentals.ca also linked construction-cost pressure to the future availability of purpose-built rentals. It noted that rental now carries much of the housing pipeline, meaning cost pressures fall on the main product being built, and projects shelved in the near term can translate into fewer completions later in the decade.
The analysis warned that deferred starts in 2026 could become missing completions in 2030-31. It also suggested that the timing could coincide with a period when population growth is expected to recover, creating what it called a potential “collision between a supply trough and a demand rebound.”
For Vancouver readers, the practical risk is that the market’s recent rent improvements could reverse if fewer purpose-built rental projects complete after cost increases. That possibility sits alongside concerns already raised by housing groups about the direction of new construction, including the expectation of delayed housing supply.
In the context of those broader market stresses, the analysis referenced warnings from the BC Real Estate Association. At the beginning of the year, BCREA said that if housing starts continued to fall and real-estate demand returned, home prices could jump by 27 per cent by 2032. Rentals.ca further said tariff uncertainty contributed to hesitation among potential buyers, and that developers also faced challenges securing project financing when presales did not materialize as expected in 2025.
Rentals.ca said Toronto and Vancouver are “doubly exposed” to price shocks because there is “little to no condo construction to fall back on.” It added that investor hesitancy has been influenced by falling rents and falling real-estate prices, making it harder to secure returns on investment. Overall, the analysis frames the tariff question as a supply-side issue that could shape how much rental housing gets built and completed in the years ahead.
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