A political commentator says several B.C. ridings beyond Surrey could affect which party wins control of the next provincial legislature.
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Every vote in the 2026 B.C. provincial election counts equally, but political commentator Hamish Telford says a small number of swing ridings could still have an outsized effect on who forms government.
Telford points to Surrey as a key battleground area, noting that the city’s parties have been intensely focused there in recent days. He says the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. NDP have held multiple campaign stops south of the Fraser, with the NDP leader David Eby making six campaign stops on Wednesday and Conservative leader John Rustad Doerkson making four on Thursday.
During the campaign, promises that emerged included a new SkyTrain extension to Newton, along with commitments related to new hospitals and health-care infrastructure.
Telford also cites results from the 2024 election, saying Surrey had five ridings decided by less than a thousand votes. “There may be some areas of the province we’re neglecting to think about,” he said.
He said North Coast ridings such as Skeena, Bulkley Valley-Stikine and North Island could surprise observers, adding that the outcome there may hinge on how the DRIPA issue plays out. Telford said those ridings have a high Indigenous population that is “militantly opposed to the repeal of DRIPA,” which he said is “an article of faith for the Conservatives.”
Telford also said other changes to B.C.’s political landscape since the last election may affect results, including the emergence of CentreBC and OneBC, which he said splintered from the BC Conservatives. He named OneBC Leader Dallas Brodie’s Vancouver-Quilchena seat as a riding to watch on Saturday.
“I find it difficult to believe that Dallas Brodie will get re-elected there, but I believe there’s a Conservative and CentreBC candidate, a Green candidate,” Telford said. He added that if the NDP vote holds in Vancouver-Quilchena—at “about the high 30s like it was last time”—it could be a seat “they could steal.”
Telford said he expects CentreBC Leader Elenore Sturko could face difficulty winning Surrey South. He said the parties’ impact could still be pronounced because of vote-splitting, particularly involving the Greens.
He pointed to 2024 results, saying the Greens were the only party that significantly split the vote at the expense of the NDP. Telford also highlighted Langley-Willowbrook as an area where he says competition could change the “math,” noting that in 2024 the NDP candidate Andrew Mercier lost by four percentage points while the Greens picked up seven.
“Mercier is running again, against the incumbent,” Telford said. He added that there is a Green candidate and also a OneBC candidate, raising the question of “how the vote-splitting in that riding play out” and whether “either of the big parties get hurt more than the other one.”
Finally, Telford said voter fatigue could influence swing seats, pointing to lower turnout for advanced voting “especially in Surrey” amid multiple duelling municipal and provincial elections.
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