With more than 95% of votes counted, New Zealand’s election has left the governing outcome too close to call, while right-leaning parties hover around the 67-seat mark needed for a majority.
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Polling places closed on Saturday after the final day of voting in New Zealand’s election, with early results showing no definitive winner between the right and the left and a likely need for weeks of coalition negotiations.
By the time more than 95% of votes had been counted, the incumbent conservative government’s bloc led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party was hovering near a wafer-thin majority that could allow a precarious return to power. Luxon did not claim victory after midnight, saying, “National is once again the largest party in Parliament and we have a pathway to forming the next government,” but adding, “But I have to tell you right now it is too close to call.”
On the Labour side, Chris Hipkins, the leader of the leftwing Labour party, also stopped short of conceding. Speaking at Labour headquarters in Upper Hutt, outside of Wellington, Hipkins told supporters, “Tonight, New Zealand has spoken,” adding, “It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said.”
The outcome remained unclear in part because of special votes—cast by New Zealanders living abroad or travelling on election day—which are counted later and have historically leaned left. In the past four elections, National lost one or two seats when special votes were counted, while leftwing parties won between one and three additional seats.
To form government, coalition partners must hold more than half of parliament’s seats. Results published Saturday suggested there could be a 130-seat parliament, meaning 66 seats would be needed for a majority, though parties would likely prefer a more comfortable cushion. Emerging figures indicated the coalition of National, ACT and NZ First could total 67 seats, including 42 for National, 13 for ACT and 12 for NZ First, a lineup that fluctuated as counts continued.
The night’s numbers also raised the prospect of a difficult result for several senior conservative figures, with emerging results suggesting potential exits from parliament for Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee, Defense and Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, and Attorney-General and Transport Minister Chris Bishop.
On the left, Labour and its partners were holding a combined 56 seats, with figures also shifting as the count continued. The Greens were celebrating an apparent best-ever result of 16 seats, while Labour had 35 and Te Pāti Māori, an Indigenous rights group, had five.
A key new factor in the early tally was the centrist Opportunity party, led by 38-year-old Qiulae Wong. Wong’s party had crossed the 5% threshold for entry to parliament, giving it seven seats in the count released Saturday, a first for the party under current results and the first time in more than a decade that a new entrant appeared poised to enter parliament.
The election rules mean New Zealanders cast two votes: one for a party and one for a local representative. Parties enter parliament by winning a constituency seat or by securing 5% of the preferred party vote. Opportunity’s early performance left open questions about whether any leader seeking power would need Wong’s support, depending on how coalition talks shape up and whether special votes change the seat totals.
Wong has said that if she held the tiebreaker power, she was open to negotiating with either a conservative or a leftwing government and would deal first with whichever major party won the most votes, while Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity. Analysts suggested both major party leaders would likely seek to keep their options open if Wong held the only path to power, though the usefulness of that position would depend on how the final seat totals land.
Voting began Oct. 26 and ended Saturday, with nearly 3.8 million people eligible to participate. A final verified tally is due on Nov. 27, including special votes, after which coalition negotiations between presumptive governing partners are expected to take weeks even when a majority is clear.
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