Vietnam’s President To Lam visits Ottawa as Mark Carney seeks ties with middle powers amid U.S.-China pressure

The Story

Vietnam’s President To Lam arrived in Ottawa for a state visit aimed at deepening trade and diplomatic ties as middle powers respond to coercion pressures tied to the United States and China. To Lam, who also serves as Communist party general secretary, is described as Vietnam’s most powerful political figure, a role that places him above the country’s prime minister in influence.

The visit includes scheduled events Thursday with Gov. Gen. Louise Arbour, Prime Minister Mark Carney and parliamentarians. A Canadian think-tank co-founder, Vina Nadjibulla, said the meeting stands out because, while Canada has hosted Vietnam’s prime minister in the past, it has not previously welcomed the top Vietnamese party leader to Canada at the same level.

Nadjibulla said Vietnam’s approach reflects both its communist governance and its economic dependence on global trade. She characterized Vietnam’s current orientation as similar in some respects to Canada’s goals: strengthening resilience, diversifying partnerships and preserving “autonomy and agency” so the country is not forced to defer to any single outside power.

She also pointed to efforts by both governments to elevate an existing cooperation framework. Since 2017, Canada and Vietnam have had an agreement covering diplomacy, investment, economic development, defence and academia, and Nadjibulla said discussions are intended to bring that agreement to a “strategic partnership,” potentially expanding collaboration over the longer term.

If that partnership evolves, Nadjibulla suggested it could include more joint work in sensitive areas such as maritime security and supply chains, as well as possible Canadian energy exports. She connected the shift to broader efforts in the Indo-Pacific, where Canada has identified priority countries in its strategy released in late 2022.

Canada’s engagement with Vietnam includes expanded aid projects aimed at economic empowerment and military diplomacy, with an emphasis on women’s roles, according to the details provided. Global Affairs Canada’s description of Vietnam identifies it as Canada’s largest trading partner in Southeast Asia, reporting two-way merchandise trade of more than $20 billion last year.

The trade picture in the information available shows Canada exporting food, metals and fertilizers to Vietnam, while Vietnam exports electronics, clothing, furniture and shoes. Nadjibulla said Vietnam’s economic leverage with multiple partners has contributed to trade surpluses, including with Canada, and she linked some of the country’s manufacturing growth to changes in U.S. trade patterns during Donald Trump’s first term.

Nadjibulla argued that Canadian businesses have not fully captured opportunities in Vietnam, which is home to an estimated 100 million people. She said Canadian firms import a substantial share from Vietnam but “sell very little” relative to those imports, describing a gap that a deeper relationship could help close.

She said Vietnam is also working to reduce exposure to the United States as it faces tariffs, while pursuing bilateral engagement with Washington. In that context, she said Canada and Vietnam are aligned on diversifying supply chains and cutting reliance on the U.S., an approach that becomes more urgent as global trade shifts under tariff and policy volatility.

The visit also comes alongside attention to labour standards and supply-chain scrutiny. The information provided states that Vietnam is at the forefront of American efforts to weed out forced labour in supply chains, particularly those that could be linked to Uyghur slave labour in China’s Xinjiang region. Nadjibulla noted that Canada’s former corporate ombudsperson has raised similar concerns about running shoes sold in Canada and produced in Vietnam.

The information available also says Beijing rejects the claims about Uyghur forced labour as unfounded and views them as aimed at undermining China’s economic growth. Vietnam’s position, as described here, is that it takes Washington’s concerns seriously.

Nadjibulla said Canada has a relationship with Vietnam that has few major irritants and pointed to historical context. She cited Canada’s delivery of aid to Vietnam and noted that Canada did not take part in the U.S. war in the 1970s. She also referenced Canada’s resettlement of more than 60,000 Indochinese refugees, including through private sponsorship.

The broader strategic thread tying together the visit is Canada’s effort to engage at the top level with countries positioned to influence regional stability. Nadjibulla said the leader-level diplomacy fits a pattern of outreach linked to Carney’s efforts to widen Canada’s trade and diplomatic connections, including visits by leaders from the Philippines and Norway, with Carney confirming a December visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Vietnam’s role in regional trade institutions is also part of the context. Vietnam holds this year’s rotating chairmanship of the Pacific Rim trade bloc CPTPP, which brings together countries including Canada, Chile, Japan and Australia and commits members to rules-based commerce and basic workers’ rights. Nadjibulla said CPTPP has gained increasing importance as countries deal with economic coercion, including limits on critical mineral supply chains and the imposition of tariffs on what she described as questionable grounds.

She said To Lam has been supportive of Carney’s initiative to have the European Union work more with CPTPP so middle powers can align against coercive policies. Nadjibulla described the relationship as poised to “go to a new level,” adding that there is political desire on both sides for further steps.

Julie Nguyen, co-founder of the Canada-Vietnam Trade Council, said the shared history gives Ottawa an opportunity to learn from Vietnam’s experience. In an analysis provided here, Nguyen wrote that Vietnam has experience in navigating and balancing among competing powers while pursuing national independence and economic development after decades of war, and that Canada can draw lessons during periods of significant change and uncertainty.

For Canadian readers, including those in Vancouver, the visit underscores how Ottawa’s Indo-Pacific posture is being built around partnerships that can support trade diversification and supply-chain stability. With negotiations underway for a free-trade agreement between Canada and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Carney is hoping to sign that agreement on a planned November visit to the Philippines, which might include a stop in Vietnam.

In the near term, the practical outcome of the To Lam visit will be determined by how discussions about a strategic partnership and expanded areas of co-operation translate into concrete initiatives across trade, investment, and areas such as defence and supply-chain resilience.