Experts say even a Democratic win in the U.S. midterms is unlikely to quickly erase recent tariff-driven strain with Canada.
The Story
Canadians hoping the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections will stabilize a “rocky” Canada-U.S. relationship may be disappointed, with experts warning that tariff and foreign-policy pressures could remain in place.
Political-science professor Matthew Lebo said Democratic efforts to curb U.S. President Donald Trump would depend heavily on how large a win Democrats achieve, noting that even if Democrats gain control of both chambers, Trump would still remain president and could be strongly motivated to act aggressively as his term progresses. Lebo added that it is unclear how much the Democratic Senate would be able to push back, describing the possibility Trump could become more “erratic” and “dangerous.”
Lebo said Democratic plans are also likely shaped by the election math in Congress, with Democrats needing a net gain of three House seats to take a majority and a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority, although some polling suggests the Senate threshold is within reach.
The midterms are occurring amid concerns in the Republican camp about “bleeding seats,” particularly in contests linked to areas where Trump dominated in 2024, such as Kansas and Ohio. Lebo said Republicans could become more inclined to break with Trump if the election results demonstrate the president has lost hold over his loyal voters.
However, Lebo said overturning Trump’s tariff approach would require a supermajority to bypass presidential veto power, meaning a large number of Republicans would need to join with Democrats. He also pointed to uncertainty about whether Democrats would attempt to return to a pre-Trump era in trade policy.
Lebo noted that Canada’s vulnerability to U.S. policy swings has been demonstrated more than once, including when Trump’s first administration scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement and replaced it with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA. Lebo said Trump’s first term brought limited stability under President Joe Biden, who kept many Trump-era tariffs despite promises to reverse them and expanded other protectionist measures.
The relationship deteriorated sharply in Trump’s second term, with Canada an early target of tariffs and Canadians reacting to repeated threats of annexation. In August, Lebo said trade talks collapsed, Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods, banned imports of other Canadian products, and signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario as Lake America.
Lebo said the tariffs are already politically sensitive in U.S. states such as Michigan and Maine, where tight Senate races could influence which party gains control of Congress. Even so, he said it is not clear that a Democratic victory would automatically bring an end to the tariff wall.
Addressing one factor Democrats may consider, the evidence points to the U.S. debt problem. Lebo said Trump has argued tariffs are needed to bring in revenue, but Democrats have not laid out a plan for how to deal with the issue. The evidence also includes Vermont Democrat Sen. Peter Welch, who vowed to repeal the tariffs on Canada after being in Montreal this week.
Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies, said Democrats traditionally have been more protectionist than Republicans and he could see the party maintaining a baseline tariff wall. Sands said what that would mean for CUSMA remains unclear.
The evidence says the Trump administration did not renew the trilateral agreement earlier this year, triggering an annual rolling review for up to 10 years. Sands said the agreement would expire only if the partners do not agree to an extension once the period ends, and he added that as long as the United States does not walk away from CUSMA, there is still room to negotiate.
← More stories