A new Simon Fraser University study projects the Whistler, Horstman and Blackcomb glaciers in southwest B.C. will largely disappear within decades as climate change accelerates their retreat.
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A new study from Simon Fraser University says three glaciers in British Columbia’s southwest could “disappear completely” within decades, with the most urgent concern at Whistler Glacier, according to research published in the journal Annals of Glaciology.
The study identifies Whistler Glacier as being in the most dire condition, projecting it could disappear within the next 10 years. The authors attribute the rapid change to climate warming over recent decades, saying the glacier has already shrunk by 95 per cent over the last five decades.
The same paper finds that the Horstman and Blackcomb glaciers have each lost up to 75 per cent of their area over roughly the same 50-year period. It projects those glaciers will melt down between three and seven decades, depending on how the long-term trajectory of climate change plays out.
Lead researcher Chloé Monty said the degree of shrinkage in the three B.C. glaciers was striking when researchers compared images, even though she described glacier retreat as a global pattern driven by climate change. She also cautioned that glacier response is slow, adding that today’s melt reflects earlier climate shifts spanning several decades.
Monty said there is nothing that can be done to stop the extinction of those specific glaciers once they have been pushed past the point of irreversible decline. She argued, however, that emissions reductions can still slow the shrinkage of larger glaciers in Canada and beyond, helping prevent further losses.
The study explains that glaciers are typically measured by whether their coverage area still meets established thresholds to qualify as glaciers. It says the Whistler Glacier has already fractured into three smaller ice masses, indicating it has passed key thresholds based on the criteria used for classification.
As ice retreats, glaciers can fall below those thresholds and be reclassified as “ice patches,” though Monty noted that experts still debate terminology for former glaciers. She said that, by some definitions, Whistler Glacier has already effectively disappeared.
Monty framed the findings as an early warning for the role of mitigation in limiting future impacts. She said changes to reduce carbon emissions now could help prevent larger glaciers from disappearing and also reduce the wider consequences of melting that contribute to sea level rise.
The research also highlights the way glacier shrinkage is already reshaping seasonal tourism and recreation. Both the Whistler and Horstman glaciers have hosted summer ski camps in the past, but the ski industry has already taken steps as melt intensified.
Whistler Blackcomb ski resort suspended summer skiing indefinitely on the Horstman Glacier last year after operating summer skiing there since the 1980s. Summer skiing activities on Whistler Glacier stopped in the late 1990s, according to the study’s account of historical operations.
Monty said resorts are making practical adjustments by developing alternative summer activities such as mountain biking to compensate for the loss of glacier skiing. She also emphasized that while those business responses are important, the central challenge remains climate mitigation to prevent additional glacier losses.
The study’s projections underscore that glaciers can disappear over human timescales. While Monty described the outlook as “sad,” she argued the broader losses still are addressable through action to reduce carbon emissions, which she said can influence how quickly remaining larger glaciers shrink.
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