Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has appeared to gain momentum as voters head to the Oct. 5 vote in Quebec.
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Quebec’s provincial election campaign in 2026 has drawn a crowded field, with five parties potentially in a position to win seats in the legislature for the first time in 50 years, according to a political science professor cited in the campaign reporting.
As the Oct. 5 vote approaches, Parti Québécois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has appeared to pull away from the pack at the tail end of a campaign focused on economic uncertainty, the cost of living and the looming prospect of a third sovereignty referendum.
Plamondon said on Friday in Quebec City that he is not taking the result for granted, but that if his party is given the mandate to form government, he believes he would have a “moral obligation” to serve as premier for “absolutely everyone.”
A PQ victory on Monday would mark a dramatic turnaround for a party that won only three seats in 2022, the lowest total ever since the PQ was founded in 1968.
André Lamoureux, a political science professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal, said the PQ’s momentum has come at the expense of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which he said has dropped in the polls in recent days.
Lamoureux attributed part of the shift to a mistake by CAQ leader Christine Fréchette, who suggested that Americans were trying to help sovereigntists take control of the province, a claim Fréchette was forced to walk back nearly immediately.
Lamoureux said the race still involves multiple players, describing it as effectively a contest involving five parties despite changes over the preceding five or six days.
He said the PQ has become a “party of refuge” for nationalist and French-speaking Quebecers seeking change from the CAQ.
Lamoureux also pointed to Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives as a potential beneficiary of waning support for the governing CAQ, noting the Conservatives’ campaign focus on the Quebec City area.
During the campaign, Duhaime has framed his message around addressing cost of living through large tax cuts and reducing the cost of government, while asking electors to give the Conservatives the balance of power.
Duhaime said he would use that balance of power to block Plamondon’s planned sovereignty referendum.
On Friday, Duhaime and his candidate Maïté Blanchette-Vézina appeared in front of buses branded with “Yes” and “No” referendum signage from the 1995 vote, and Duhaime said they would ensure the “Yes” and “No” buses remain “nothing more than a fantasy” rather than becoming a “nightmare” for Quebecers over the next four years.
Liberal Leader Milliard described himself as the only federalist leader in the race, and he argued he is best positioned to oversee an economic resurgence. On Friday, he suggested the CAQ was “game over” and said the election was a race between his party and the PQ.
Milliard also characterized the CAQ as an “empty chair” and said Plamondon “wants to take the chair away” from discussions with other provinces and Ottawa, as the PQ makes a bid for sovereignty, according to the provided reporting.
Lamoureux said Milliard has struggled to grow his support among francophones, making it difficult to expand his base.
Québec solidaire was also described as part of the field, but Lamoureux said it has failed to make an impact outside its base in urban Montreal, despite ideas such as a wealth tax and public grocery stores.
Fréchette entered the race as outgoing premier and, according to the reporting, was seen as having an upswing in momentum. She has presented her team as positioned to defend Quebec businesses amid an ongoing trade war and has said U.S. President Donald Trump is her main adversary.
The reporting also said Fréchette has faced attacks from rivals who accused her government of wasting Quebecers’ money and failing to deliver on promises over eight years in government.
Whoever wins will likely lead a legislature different from the one elected four years ago, when the CAQ won 90 of 125 seats, Lamoureux said.
He said a minority scenario would force the winner to make partnerships and seek cooperation, meaning parties represented in the legislature would still have opportunities to influence the government’s direction.
The campaign reporting said Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum in the next four years if the PQ forms government, although it also noted polls show most Quebecers do not favour separation.
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