Poll suggests BC Conservatives leading BC NDP by five points with no late NDP surge

The Story

As B.C.’s provincial election campaign heads into its final week, a new online poll says there is no sign of a last-minute surge for the BC NDP, with the BC Conservatives leading by five points among decided voters.

Greg Lyle with the Innovative Research Group said the Conservatives are ahead and that the pattern in the results suggests it would be difficult for the NDP to narrow the gap with time remaining. He said the election is “a time for a change” and added that support for the NDP has weakened as the campaign progressed.

Lyle said the biggest lead for the Conservatives is in the Lower Mainland south of the Fraser River, while other parts of the province are closer but still show at least marginal Conservative leads. He pointed to a large lead among Punjabi and Chinese speakers, describing them as key voters in several Lower Mainland swing seats.

The poll also examined leadership perceptions. Lyle said the survey found BC Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson gained between six and 10 points on specific leadership attributes, including a 10-point increase in the share of voters who rated him as the most competent choice. He said the results were “statistically a tie,” but that Doerkson held a two-point advantage over BC NDP leader David Eby on the leadership measure.

Lyle said there is potential for the BC NDP to narrow the gap with Green voters, but not enough to close the current five-point gap completely. He said overall, 37 per cent of voters who have a second choice say they have not fully made up their mind, with that figure highest among Green voters at 54 per cent.

The results also showed that undecided voters are limited, with Lyle saying the share of undecided is under 10 per cent. He said voters who still want to hear more are about one-third for both the Conservatives and NDP, while more than half of Green voters would like to hear more, suggesting a possible “bounce” for the NDP based on second-choice patterns.

The online survey was conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 19, 2026. It used Innovative’s Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, and reported a sample size of n=1153 British Columbian citizens aged 18 and older, with results weighted to n=1000 based on Census data from Statistics Canada.