Prime Minister Mark Carney says he studied the possibility of U.S.-led military action in Canada, describing it as an “extreme tail risk” that governments should plan for.
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Prime Minister Mark Carney says he examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action directed at Canada, while framing the scenario as a worst-case planning exercise rather than a “base case.”
In a New York Times interview published Wednesday, Carney declined to provide details about what the assessment involved but said it would be irresponsible not to prepare for what he called “extreme tail risk.” He described that as a responsibility tied to risk management and said the approach does not imply the scenario is expected.
Carney’s comments come amid broader political and economic tensions between Canada and the United States under President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly mused publicly about turning Canada into the 51st U.S. state. In January 2025, Trump said he would not use military force to annex Canada, but he suggested he would consider using “economic force” instead to bring about annexation.
The Prime Minister also discussed Canada’s efforts to reduce reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service and said the federal government is considering alternatives to buying American F-35 fighter jets. Carney described a political review of maintaining a plan for a full fleet of F-35 stealth fighters, noting that the review was launched more than a year ago in response to the trade war.
The underlying trade dispute has intensified after attempts to reach a trade agreement failed in mid-August. The day after negotiations ended, Trump imposed 50 per cent duties on $28 billion in Canadian goods. Canada then implemented retaliatory tariffs in early September.
Carney’s interview also touched on steps Trump took related to government procurement, including signing an order to identify and remove products of Canadian origin from U.S. government procurement systems.
On the relationship management side, the New York Times report said Carney disclosed he and Trump speak “frequently” even after trade talks collapsed. Carney has previously said the leaders communicate regularly and that they can “compartmentalize” their discussions, including in remarks made earlier this month at a news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Carney and Trump did not meet when they both attended the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly this week. The interview also noted that it was Carney’s first trip to the United States since the trade negotiations collapsed last month.
Earlier on Wednesday, Trump claimed on social media that Canada is “destroying itself” by allowing millions of people into the country “essentially unchecked and unvetted,” according to the report. The claim was described as lacking evidence, while Trump characterized it as a “Liberal takeover” that he said will “end very badly.”
In a Canadian context, Carney’s remarks underscore how senior officials are weighing security contingencies alongside economic policy during the current period of elevated U.S.-Canada friction. They also highlight that the federal government is continuing to reassess defence procurement and satellite communications strategy while addressing an expanding trade dispute and its knock-on effects for Canadian policy planning.
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