Canada’s population estimate revised up by about 300,000, showing modest growth into July 2026

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Updated Statistics Canada population estimates reviewed by Vancouver-based credit union Central 1 suggest Canada’s population was about 300,000 higher than earlier figures indicated, reversing earlier signs that the country’s population was shrinking.

The revised figures put Canada’s population at nearly 41.8 million as of July 2026. Central 1 reported that Canada gained more than 80,300 residents during the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 0.2 per cent, and that the population was up by about 189,400 people or 0.5 per cent compared with the previous year.

Central 1 said the national revisions substantially changed earlier quarterly comparisons that had shown two consecutive quarters of year-over-year population declines. For April 2026, earlier estimates had suggested Canada’s population had dropped 0.5 per cent year over year, while the updated figures show a modest increase of 0.5 per cent, a reversal of one full percentage point.

The change stems largely from revised estimates of how many temporary residents remained in Canada, including international students and temporary workers. Central 1 said Statistics Canada incorporated new Canada Border Services Agency data to estimate departures before permits expire and also adjusted for people with extension applications still being processed.

Those revisions reach back to July 2021, Central 1 said. For the 18 months ending in April 2026, the group had previously been estimated to have shrunk by about 590,500 people, but the revised decline is approximately 185,000. Central 1 also reported that temporary resident numbers continued to fall in the second quarter of 2026, dropping by nearly 18,900 people or 0.7 per cent, with study permit numbers falling while work permit numbers increased.

Central 1 said permanent immigration continued to support overall population growth. It reported that approximately 99,200 people became permanent residents in the second quarter of 2026, which is 4.2 per cent lower than a year earlier but higher than the first quarter, and that permanent immigration totalled about 368,200 people over the four quarters ending in June 2026.

The revisions also changed provincial results. Central 1 reported that while earlier estimates suggested annual population declines in seven of 10 provinces, the updated figures show every province had a larger population than a year earlier in April and July 2026.

Central 1 said British Columbia and Ontario saw particularly large revisions, reflecting their relatively high shares of temporary residents. Even with those changes, Ontario’s annual population growth was only 0.3 per cent as of July 2026, while Alberta led the provinces with annual growth of 1.5 per cent, adding about 76,400 residents to reach approximately 5.1 million. It reported Saskatchewan and New Brunswick followed, each growing by about 1 per cent.

Central 1 also pointed to relocation between provinces. It said Alberta gained a net 5,893 residents from other provinces during the second quarter of 2026, and that B.C. gained more residents from other provinces than it lost to them.

The revised estimates, Central 1 said, have implications for the federal government’s immigration policy. It reported that temporary residents represented 6.6 per cent of Canada’s population as of July 2026, down slightly from a revised 6.7 per cent in April 2026, and that before the revisions the April 2026 share had been estimated at 6.1 per cent. Central 1 said that leaves the government’s updated goal of reducing the temporary resident share to 5 per cent further away than earlier figures suggested.

Central 1 said that many people who come temporarily can establish careers and personal ties before seeking ways to remain. It warned that greater restrictions could weaken rental housing markets and economic activity, and said further restrictions could make it more difficult for temporary residents to stay.

Central 1 also linked the population revisions to how economic performance is interpreted, noting that a larger population can affect measures such as consumer spending and output per person. It said the updated population figures could push reported unemployment rates higher as they are incorporated into labour market statistics.

In a separate economic analysis released in late September 2026, Central 1 forecast a weaker second half of 2026 after Canada’s economy made little progress in July. It reported that gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in July after a 0.4 per cent increase in June, and that output was up 1.4 per cent compared with a year earlier, down from June’s annual growth of 2.1 per cent.

Central 1 said construction output rose by 1.3 per cent, led by non-residential projects, and attributed housing-market slowdown expectations partly to higher bond yields flowing through mortgage rates. It also said it expects the Bank of Canada to hold its policy interest rate steady into 2027, while noting high and unpredictable oil prices remain a major inflation risk.